Kashmir Dispute, Sustainable Solution

U.K. Dar

With extraordinary leverages given to India by Mr Musharraf, including foregoing the UN resolution and thinking “outside the box”, India failed to seize the golden opportunity. In my opinion, no democratic government in Pakistan can dare think “outside the box”.   But then no solution is possible, if we keep on sticking to our entrenched position.  Best solution in my eyes is division of Kashmir on religious, cultural, and ethnic lines.

Nonetheless, it is important to realize that the stance which makes us morally superior to Indians is based on numerous UN resolutions, which accept the right of Kashmiris to decide their own fate. Hence any solution imposed by either Pakistan or India will not be sustainable, until and unless it is backed by referendum, voice of Kashmiris.

India claims the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir to be its integral part, but is ready to accept the Line of Control as the international border. International community have also favoured this solution. But Pakistan and Kashmiris have serious reservation in accepting this solution. This solution undermines the sacrifices of Kashmiris who have been fighting Indian forces since 1989.  Pakistan wants plebiscite to be held in the valley and believes that the likely outcome of any such plebiscite would be Kashmir state uniting with Pakistan. The worst case scenario of any such plebiscite will be Kashmiris wanting an independent state. Independent Kashmir is an option not supported by both India and Pakistan. Obvious reason is that without external assistance, the region would not be economically viable. The valley economy depends on tourism, handicrafts and agriculture. But an independent Kashmir Valley would depend on its neighbours for all trades as the region is not only landlocked, but it is snowbound during winter.

The fact is that Occupied Kashmir has three distinct regions with peoples that are culturally, religiously and ethnically diverse. Muslims have majority in Kashmir valley where they constitute 95% of the population.  Jammu is predominantly Hindu, with over 66% Hindus and 30 % Muslims, and Ladakh having 50% Buddhist and 46 % Muslims population. Therefore, any joint plebiscite held in entire region, would create dissatisfied minorities. The Muslims of Kashmir have been longing to join Pakistan whereas Hindus of Jammu and the Buddhists of Ladakh have never shown any such desire.  Any mass migration like that of 1947 will be frightening.

Having analysed the facts, the only concrete solution is division of Kashmir. With Muslim majority Kashmir valley becoming part of Pakistan and Jammu and Ladakh joining India. Critics argue, this mean asking India to voluntarily give up territory which it holds and wants to retain. They donot see India getting any benefit from such division and hence argue India would never agree to such a solution.

In my viewpoint, there are benefits for India in this solution.  India’s ambitions of joining UN permanent Security Council seat cannot be achieved until the UN resolution on Kashmir are there. However, with Kashmir dispute solved,   India can get her place with Pakistan support. Moreover, the two neighbours can sign a no war pact and stop the nuclear missile race in the region.  With confidence building between the two nations the immense economic benefit to both regions cannot be ignored. Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline to capture Iranian gas reserves and linkage to oil rich South Asian States are also the likely benefits. Lastly, this solution is like give and take, which can satisfy the public opinion of both countries with both countries looking “outside the box” and stepping back from their old stances.

Both countries shall understand that “let sleeping dogs lie” approach is not going to work. Such flashpoints remain a breeding ground for returning catastrophe. This is what history tells us, not only in Kashmir but also in South Ossetia, where the South Ossetia never wanted to join Georgia and at one point the situation went out of hand and resulted in a war between Russia and Georgia. If anyone thinks that the Kashmir issue can be put in cold-storage without getting onto permanent political settlements, needs to look at the events which turned the Kashmir valley into ball of fire during the summer of 2008. Transfer of just 100 acres of land to the Amaranth shrine board sparked widespread protests in the valley.

Hidden inside present crisis is a window of opportunity; to obtain long lasting solutions. Not taking advantage of this can be golden opportunity lost again. I wish that the Indian Government do not adopt a wait and see policy with a hope that public anger will steam out and calm will be restored.  I am hopeful that common sense will prevail and with a sigh of relief, I have read renowned Indian columnist asking their government to take measures to resolve the issue permanently even if that means looking “outside the box”.

I will end with quoting from the latest article “Land and freedom” written by renowned Indian writer and activist and  Booker Prize winner  Arundhati Roy  where she says that “India needs azadi from Kashmir just as much as - if not more than - Kashmir needs azadi from India”.

(U.K Dar is a Kashmiri origin presently at University of Manchester pursuing his PhD)